Spending rose. Rate expectations shifted.

Fresh retail and factory figures add context to Wednesday’s Bank of Canada decision—and to your next housing move.

The Morning Market · Monday, October 26, 2026 · 4-minute read
Morning analysis · New releases and reporting since Friday’s briefing.

Your first sip

Friday’s Coffee left us with competing signals: higher headline inflation, a complicated business-confidence picture and an approaching interest-rate decision.

Later that day, more information arrived.

Retail spending increased in August. An early estimate suggested manufacturing sales barely moved in September. And a new economist poll showed a narrow majority expecting the Bank of Canada to raise rates Wednesday.

Those developments deserve attention, with one distinction kept firmly in view: spending figures describe the past, while economists’ forecasts describe a possible future.

Three numbers worth knowing

The manufacturing figure is an advance estimate subject to revision. The poll is a forecast, not an announced decision. Sources: retail trade, manufacturing advance indicator and Reuters poll.

1. Shoppers spent more—and prices do not explain the whole increase

What happened: Retail sales rose 1.2% to $74.6 billion in August. Sales volumes also increased 1.2%, indicating the overall gain reflected more goods sold after accounting for price changes. Ontario sales increased 2.2%. These results were released Friday but describe August activity. Source: Statistics Canada.

Our housing interpretation: The report adds evidence that consumers continued spending during the summer. It cannot tell us whether those same households are ready to purchase a home.

Buying everyday goods, replacing a vehicle and committing to a mortgage involve different financial decisions. For an Oakville or Toronto buyer, the useful question remains personal: how much reliable monthly income is available after existing obligations, and how much should remain untouched for emergencies?

For sellers, stronger retail activity is economic context. It does not establish the price a buyer will pay for a particular property.

2. Factory sales were nearly flat—and the estimate is still developing

What happened: Statistics Canada’s advance indicator showed manufacturing sales edging up 0.1% in September. Petroleum and coal products, alongside aerospace products and parts, provided the largest increases.

The estimate uses an incomplete set of responses and is more prone to revision than the regular release. A more complete September estimate is scheduled for November 13. It measures sales dollars, rather than inflation-adjusted production. Source: manufacturing advance indicator.

Our housing interpretation: A small national sales increase provides limited reassurance about the employment outlook of any individual household.

For buyers working in manufacturing or related businesses, assess income stability directly. Consider whether overtime, bonuses or variable earnings are essential to making the housing budget work.

Landlords should apply the same discipline to their own finances: maintain room for repairs, vacancies and financing changes instead of assuming uninterrupted cash flow.

3. A rate increase has become a serious forecast—not a settled outcome

What happened: A Reuters poll published Friday afternoon found 19 of 34 economists expecting a 0.25-percentage-point increase to 2.50% on October 28. That is a narrow majority, with disagreement remaining. The Bank has not announced its decision. Source: Reuters.

Our housing interpretation: Use the forecast to test your plan. Ask what an increase would mean under your actual mortgage contract.

The Bank explains that its policy rate influences short-term rates, including prime, which lenders use to price variable mortgages. Mortgage pricing also depends on lenders’ funding costs and other factors. A policy announcement therefore does not translate identically into every borrower’s rate or payment. Source: Bank of Canada mortgage-rate explainer.

What this means for you

• Buying: Reconfirm financing and your comfortable payment ceiling before making an offer.
• Selling: Price against comparable sales and current competition; avoid building your strategy around a forecast.
• Renting: Compare complete monthly costs and preserve a moving or emergency reserve.
• Landlords: Review financing terms, renewal dates and available cash reserves together.

Your coffee takeaway

New information should sharpen a housing decision, not rush it.

Friday’s releases added detail to the economic picture. Wednesday will bring the Bank’s actual decision. Between now and then, the most useful preparation is knowing how your own numbers respond.

Sources and what we’re watching

• Statistics Canada: August retail trade, released October 23
• Statistics Canada: September manufacturing advance indicator, released October 23
• Reuters: October 21–23 economist poll, published October 23
• Bank of Canada: What’s behind your mortgage rate

Next: Wednesday, October 28 at 9:45 a.m. ET, brings the rate decision and Monetary Policy Report. August GDP by industry follows October 30, according to Statistics Canada’s release notice.